The first two spreadsheets show the voting situation in Osrakum before and after Suth Sardian’s arrival.
Before Suth’s arrival, Ykoriana’s faction is heading towards an outright win for her favoured candidate, Molochite, with a margin of more than 1000 votes. Even should Imago’s faction vote against her, she would win with a comfortable margin of 160. Note, however, that in spite of this, Aurum’s faction is dominant in the Clave—which is what allows him to have Suth elected He-who-goes-before.
Suth’s arrival changes everything. 500 or so blood-rank one votes come over to Aurum’s faction, with 35 blood-rank two votes. These are enough to reverse the previous situation, so that it is Aurum’s faction that now looks to lead by more than 500 votes. But, critically, Imago’s faction, even though it has shrunk to less than half its previous strength, looks likely to neutralize this lead.