the once in a 100 million year experiment…

Monday, March 25th, 2013
achieving escape velocity © NASA

achieving escape velocity © NASA

As we consume fossil fuels, we humans are carrying out a once in a 100 million year experiment. The coal, oil and gas we have burned so profligately in the past 200 years or so are a legacy of ancient sun energy laid down in the Earth’s crust by organisms at least 100 million years ago (300 million in the case of coal). We began exploiting these reserves where they were easy to reach; at or near the surface and in regions occupied by human beings. Using machines powered by the very fossil fuels we are extracting, we delve ever deeper, ever further afield. What was once easy to find, has become progressively more difficult, and, with diminishing returns, we have to use ever more of the energy obtained, to reach and exploit the increasingly inaccessible reserves remaining.

The way we have exploited these reserves is a one off process: what we have already consumed will not be replaced in less than 100 million years… and under no conceivable view of the future could anything like the human race survive to such a distant future. Any other ‘intelligent’ species that were to evolve within that period of millions of years would do so on a planet denuded of accessible fossil fuel reserves. Whatever kind of technological civilisation they were to build, it would have to be based on non-fossil fuels. Not a bad thing, you may feel, for is that not what we are seeking? However, it may be that, without fossil fuels, the level of development their civilisation could reach may be severely restricted.

Fossil fuels function as a ‘labour multiplier’ – they have supplied the ‘slave labour’ that has allowed our present civilisation to surge forward; they are what primarily separates the capabilities of our civilisation from all those that went before. Though our sciences give us the ‘know how’, without the ‘muscle’ of fossil fuels we would not have been capable of the major transformation of our world that allows us to sustain our vast population and its current levels of ‘wealth’. Yet, we also know that we are unlikely to be able to continue sustaining our civilisation using fossil fuels: not only are they running out, but, through promoting climate change, they are in danger of destroying the conditions necessary for its survival. A transition to renewable energy sources is critical. Ironically, such a transition is only made possible because of the technological advances that fossil fuels have made possible.

So, it seems to me that we are using fossil fuels as a ‘booster rocket’ to make an attempt to achieve ‘escape velocity’ to a possible transcendent future. Not only is this our one and only chance to do this, but it is the only such chance that will be available to any species on this planet for at least 100 million years…

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the experimental past…

Sunday, January 27th, 2013
gate carved from a single piece of stone, Tiwanaku ©www.crystalinks.com

gate carved from a single piece of stone, Tiwanaku ©www.crystalinks.com

The study of the history of non-Western societies – especially those that have ‘failed’ – may be one of the most valuable resources that we have to help guide us through the coming ‘time of difficulty’ that we seem to be heading for.

Watching a good BBC documentary about Tiwanaku, I was struck by how pertinent to our present climate change woes was the story of these people, not only surviving, but flourishing in an environment that most of us would consider adverse to human existence. Not only do they provide us possibly with lessons in sustainable living – with their numerous adaptive feats of agriculture, technology and infrastructure design, but, perhaps even more importantly, they are a ‘social experiment’ carried out across diverse cultural groups, and over a span of centuries, of varying landscapes and climactic zones. It can hardly be imagined that any projected environmental ‘study’ that we are capable of – however powerful the computers we might use to produce a simulation – could possibly come close to providing us with the real world information that just this one example can.

The pre-conquest cultures of South America (specifically the Andean regions, with extensions east into the Amazon basin, and west into the narrow strip of land that runs between the Andes and the Pacific Ocean) may seem remote and only of interest to eccentric antiquarians, but the topography of that continent has provided, throughout history, a multitude of incredibly diverse landscapes that challenged the survival of the societies who lived in them. The level of adaptation that these societies made (or were forced to make) to their environments have revealed the remarkable truth that, without fossil fuels, large domestic animals, the wheel, or any use of metals (and alloys) harder than copper, they managed, in many places, to sustain larger populations than we are capable of today, and did so with enough comfort to be able to produce monumental architecture. The very complexity of the topography of South America has created a multiplicity of ‘niches’, often abutting against each other, in which such societies could develop. Empires in this region could thus, even when not spanning vast distances, take in everything from a torrid seacoast niche, to the high Altiplano and everything in between. Of particular interest is that many of these ‘experiments’ ultimately failed when the climate changed.

There are countless other examples from elsewhere. The Maya for one, whose population in the relatively constrained Yucatan, in that relatively constrained space, may have reached the kind of numbers that the early Roman Empire reached in its encircling of the Mediterranean. The reasons given for the ultimate collapse of Mayan civilization are varied, but a favoured explanation is that this occurred as a result of environmental degradation produced by over population. Another example, perhaps the example, is that of Easter Island – a social experiment carried out on an island that, through its extreme isolation, was as closed a system as a petri dish.

Other civilizations experimented with forms of government and of economic organisation. The Achaemenid Persian Empire, for example (that I have been studying as the setting for a novel). The study of these ‘dead’ cultures may seem esoteric (for all their beauty and fascination): at times I have thought such to be a sort of ‘ancestor worship’ – but consider if these studies may not perhaps turn out to be critical to us as our own civilisation edges towards its own possible collapse from climate change, environmental degradation, and competing and failing models of governance?

As the West loses its pre-eminence in human affairs, we seem to be less and less blind to these other histories. Until recently we have been obsessed with ourselves, with tracing the rise of our greatness, so that so many of our historians have lavished their attention on investigating the ‘line of progress’ that has brought us – apparently – from the birth of civilisation in Mesopotamia, through ancient Greece and Israel (with an input from ancient Egypt), through Rome, to Europe and then the period of Western imperialism that has ‘blossomed’ into our current system of global capitalism. On one level, this could be seen as a sort of ‘psychotherapy’ of Western civilization, though on another could it not be seen as a neo-Darwinist project that has been developing a narrative for why our dominance was not only justified, but inevitable? Either way, it seems to me that as we (humanity) realize that our culture seems to be leading us to disaster, we no longer have the luxury of such self-obsession.

So, rather than considering this exploration of non-Western history as some kind of pursuit for ivory tower scholars, I would like to suggest that is in fact a bringing together of all the critical knowledge and wisdom that can be gleaned from the social experiments that humanity has been carrying out on this planet over thousands of years. These experiments, participated in by people like ourselves, pushed frontiers and called on the ingenuity that we are capable of and came up with solutions that it would be wise of us to take heed of. Even more, the failures of these experiments provide us with lessons that were bought with the lives and diminishing opportunites of people for whom their societies were not experiments, but the lives they lived as best they could…

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a new renaissance?

Wednesday, September 21st, 2011

a concert under Concorde...

Red Note Ensemble playing Philip Glass, Lammermuir Fesitval 2011

Sunday past I went to a performance of Philip Glass’ 1000 Airplanes on the Roof in a hangar, at East Fortune in Scotland, that has been built around a decommissioned Concorde. It was a promenade concert – allowing us to walk around as the piece – a “melodrama in one act” – was acted out, and the music played. I found the conductor Jessica Cottis to be more worth watching than the actor. She conducted Red Note Ensemble – a small chamber orchestra consisting of synthesisers, some wind instruments and a soprano – with amazing control, delicacy and precision: the whole a tad surreal as the musicians played beneath the belly of the giant ‘paper dart’ of the Concorde.

This was as mesmerising a performance as I have seen anywhere – not unworthy of New York, never mind rural Scotland! It was part of the Lammermuir Festival (my little house nestles in the foothills of the Lammermuirs) that is only (as far as I understand) in its second year and, from the size and enthusiasm of the audience, I can hardly believe it will be it’s last. That such an ambitious undertaking should even be attempted in the countryside near Edinburgh, and so soon after that city’s own massive festival, left me pondering…

Ever more people live on this planet of which an ever increasing proportion are becoming ‘educated’. Consequently, audiences for all kinds of art are swelling, as are the cohorts of artists and performers producing that art. That these ‘creators’ must surely form a normal distribution implies that there must be unprecedented numbers that are extremely skilled – including the Red Note Ensemble and their excellent conductor.

These things taken together may perhaps suggest an explanation as to why rural East Lothian might be capable of supporting an arts festival of its own. Could we be living in a new renaissance? Certainly there is more of every kind of art out there than there has ever been, and more people able to appreciate it. But perhaps more is less. Is so much art now being created that it is in danger of becoming a consumer product like any other…?

This was written a couple of days ago on the train down to London. Subsequently, I found that there was no wi-fi at my friend’s, where I am staying. Though he is wealthy, he is also a canny Scot and he refuses to pay what he considers to be an extortionate rate *grin* My mobile phone isn’t getting a dependable signal either, so that perhaps another conjecture could be floated considering the relative technological merits of rural versus metropolis…

Also I have been adapting to using my iPad as my sole computer, obtaining my visa from the Iranian Consulate, and investigating the possibility of flying to Istanbul from where I would take a train from there to Teheran… The prospect of a three day journey across Asia Minor is hard to resist :)

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gapminder…

Tuesday, October 6th, 2009

Now here is something that blew my mind… First take a look at this then have a play with this

I have never come across a better justification for the Web (for computers, even) than this… Gapminder is a revelatory instrument (like a telescope, a microscope): it not only presents statistics in a way that anyone can absorb – but puts it somewhere where anyone with access to the Net can use it… I cannot imagine any aspect of recent human history, economics, nationality, ecopolitics etc etc that it will not illuminate…

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